I took a moment to review the actual math behind plat tech alchemy, and I'm posting my findings below.
:siren: MATH TIME :siren:
The prevalence of cobalt and platinum dictates that, over time, plat tech alchemy will go to fuel cost. CCP Fozzie said as much in the devblog announcing the change.
Here is a pos block worksheet, where I've artificially set the price of isotopes to 600 isk per unit. All other pos block ingredients (primarily planetary interaction items) are not expected to move significantly due to this patch, so I'm using current prices (pulled from eve-central) for them.
I must stress that the isotope isk per unit figure is very conservative -- with the advent of 80k EHP skiffs and 27k EHP hulks, mining ice in high sec is completely safe and will be inundated by bots inside of a month. If ice falls to 400 or 500 isk per unit, it will not surprise me in the least. 600 isk was chosen due to being the average price for isotopes before the GSF Gallente Ice Interdiction.
Worksheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AukS-t3ALI3ZdFVQWWtyYjl2R2NlYzFlQlRWMFJCUmc#gid=1 (Ignore the block cost column, it's just pulling the current pos block cost from eve-c. Column B is the important part.)
A fuel block costs 11,824 isk based on that sheet. A non-faction, medium pos doing a single PT alchemy reaction in sov space will consume 15 fuel blocks per hour, 10 platinum per hour, and 100 cobalt per hour. There is enough cobalt in eve to safely discard the cost of the cobalt, as attempting to ship it in any reasonable quantity incurs more fuel cost than is profitable to export. Platinum is currently 3,505.81 isk in Jita, but we'll increase the price of platinum by 20% to account for a sixth use of platinum being added to the game, to 4,206.97 isk.
Costs:
* 15 fuel blocks: 177,360 isk
* 100 cobalt: free
* 10 platinum: 42,069.70 isk
Subtotal: 219,429.70 isk
Divide by 20 to get
10,971.49 isk per unit of plat tech
Now, working backwards, we consider technetium. The same medium tower in sov space doing a non-alchemy plat tech reaction.
The breakeven point for plat tech is 10,971 isk per unit. The simple reaction produces 200 plat tech per hour, so total isk grossed is 2,194,297 isk per hour.
Costs:
* 15 fuel blocks: 177,360 isk
* 100 platinum: 420,697 isk
* 100 technetium: 100X
Subtotal: 598,057 + 100X
With some simple algebra,
598,057 + 100X = 2,194,297
100X = 1,596,240
X =
15,962.40 isk per unit of technetium
So yeah, right now neodymium is 22,000 isk per unit, and it's likely to rise some after patch
and this is a CONSERVATIVE number based on an arguably optimistic value of 600 isk / unit on topes